Hillary Clinton Likely to Win U.S. Presidential Race: SurveyMonkey
Leading online survey platform SurveyMonkey has released final polling estimates for the 2016 presidential, U.S. Senate, and gubernatorial elections.
Just ahead of Tuesday’s election, SurveyMonkey and NBC News showed Hillary Clinton with a clear and consistent national lead, beating Donald Trump 47 to 41 percent, with 6 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 3 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
“Our polls have shown Clinton’s lead in the national popular vote to be remarkably stable despite the many apparent twists and turns in the campaign,” said Jon Cohen, SurveyMonkey’s chief research officer. “All fall, Clinton has maintained a lead over Trump, with her margin hovering in a narrow band between 4 and 6 percentage points.”
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In its exclusive polls across all 50 states (and Washington, D.C.), SurveyMonkey has Clinton with significant leads in 21 states (including Washington, D.C.) for a total of 257 Electoral College votes.
She has numerical advantages in another six states. Should Clinton prevail in all of them, she will win the presidency with 334 Electoral College votes, putting the final tally between President Obama’s victories in 2008 (365 Electoral College votes) and 2012 (332).
According to SurveyMonkey, Trump has clear advantages in 23 states, which total 188 Electoral College votes. One state, Georgia, is a tie in our final pre-election estimate.
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Across a range of possible scenarios given by SurveyMonkey’s 50-state results, the average outcome is 321 Electoral votes for Clinton to 217 for Trump. The chances of a Clinton win are 96 percent.
“The size and scale of our Election Tracking effort, across 97 races, have never been attempted before,” said Zander Lurie, CEO of SurveyMonkey. “Our team has surveyed more than one million American voters since we started the weekly tracking poll in December 2015. In the coming days, our data will be visualized in an interactive Electoral Map providing a definitive, detailed look at who voted and why in this historic contest.”
SurveyMonkey says its Election Tracking platform is the only polling platform currently able to analyze and compare all 34 Senate races at scale. It is forecasting the winners of these contests.
The final snapshot shows Democrats likely positioned to win five Republican-held seats in the Senate, four of them by Democratic women, including Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. SurveyMonkey also has released data on all 12 gubernatorial contests.
Later this week, SurveyMonkey will also publish polls with Election Day and early voters, where the interactive Electoral Map will reflect how and why key voters groups made the big choice between Clinton and Trump.
In all 50 states, the company says, breakdowns of voter choices by age, education, race, marital status, military service, union membership, gun ownership, and more will be available.
Photo courtesy: SurveyMonkey